Biden considers raising stakes for escalation with Iran in Gulf

Will Iran be deterred?

The US military is proposing to deploy Marines and Navy personnel on commercial tankers in the Persian Gulf to deter seizure attempts by Iran, Jared Szuba reports. 

The policy is being pitched to the White House as a means to deter Iran and reassure regional partners who believe the US response to Iranian seizures of commercial vessels has been too restrained.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi invited UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to visit his country, one day after Iran conducted a naval drill on Abu Musa Island, whose sovereignty is disputed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

In May, the UAE withdrew from a US-led maritime security coalition after one of its commercial vessels was seized by Iran. And last week, the Chinese Defense Ministry announced that the UAE and Chinese militaries will hold their first-ever joint fighter jet drill, as Joyce Karam reports in this week’s China-Middle East newsletter.

The Biden administration has given heightened urgency to normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel to strengthen its posture against Iran, especially following the collapse of negotiations over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal. 

Saudi Arabia reportedly wants a security agreement with the United States, access to more advanced US weaponry, and support for its civilian nuclear program as its price for normalization.

The proposed deployment, if approved, might help reassure Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

It also increases the risks of escalation, especially if US authorities for the use of force are more decentralized, or if Iran sees advantage in trying to test the bounds of US deterrence. 

Iraq’s disarming quiet

Another potential flashpoint for the United States and Iran is Iraq.  

According to a Pentagon report released last week, “there were no significant hostile activities between Iran or Iran-aligned actors and Coalition forces or local partners in Iraq” from April to June of this year, continuing a pause that has been in place since May 2022.

On the one hand, this should be good news for the United States and Iraq. On the other, the quiet may be because Iran is in consolidation mode — there is no reason to escalate with the United States when things are going Tehran’s way in Iraq. The leading figures in Iraq’s ruling political alliance, the Coalition Framework, include many of Iran’s closest Iraqi friends. And Iran-backed Iraqi militias are on a roll, consolidating power across Iraq’s security services. 

“Iraqi Prime Minister [Mohammed Shia] al-Sudani did not take steps to assert control over militias or their umbrella organization, the Popular Mobilization Committee (PMC), during the quarter,” the report continues, and “the Prime Minister approved the Finance Ministry’s budget proposal to increase funding allocations to the PMC.”

Would Hezbollah risk all-out war with Israel?

Another regional flashpoint, by proxy, is the Israel-Lebanon border. Ben Caspit writes this week that friction with Hezbollah, which is itself nothing new, may be inching, "slowly but surely," toward an all-out confrontation. 

“A limited clash is not an option, according to the messages Israel has been conveying to Hezbollah openly and covertly,” reports Caspit. “In the case of a flare-up along the northern border, Israel would likely take advantage of the opportunity to restore its deterrence and teach Nasrallah and Hezbollah a lesson that will ‘send them back to the bunker for another 17 years,’ according to a senior Israeli security source, speaking to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.”

This too depends on Iran. There may be a distinct Israel-Hezbollah spiral, but Hassan Nasrallah’s direction ultimately comes from Tehran. The take here is that Iran may want to turn up the heat just a bit, to remind the region of its own deterrent and resistance capabilities, as the United States tries to broker Saudi-Israeli normalization and considers raising the stakes for confrontation in the Gulf.

Iran has edge in Russia ties

A third flashpoint for the United States and Iran is the latter’s support for Russia in the Ukraine war. 

Russia needs Iran more than ever these days. The United States and the West have repeatedly called out Iran for its provision of armed drones to Russia, which Iran denies doing. Meanwhile, Iran welcomes the strategic depth that Russia offers in facing down the West. 

The United States and its partners have little to offer Iran besides warnings and sanctions. This column has noted that in October 2023, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) calls for lifting United Nations restrictions on Iran’s import and export of missile- and drone-related technology, so Iran could sell even more drones, and perhaps missiles, unless one of the European JCPOA signatories (the United Kingdom, France or Germany) initiates snapback sanctions.

“Tehran's decision to continue supplying drones to Russia and to localize their production against the backdrop of serious pressure from Europe and the United States has certainly had an impact on the overall configuration of Russian-Iranian relations,” writes Anton Mardasov from Moscow in an upcoming piece for Al-Monitor. “For the first time, the Russian military found itself acting as cadets rather than instructors, and the Kremlin as a debtor.”

Iran sees its drone capabilities as a high-value export. Bolivian Defense Minister Edmundo Novillo Aguilar, in a visit to Iran last week, clinched a deal to purchase Iran-made drones, according to our correspondent.

Iran looks to Asia, Africa

Raisi paid official visits to Kenya, Uganda and Zimbabwe last month, “reflecting Iran’s current foreign policy approach of pivoting away from the West,” as Bijan Khajehpour writes this week for Al-Monitor Pro.

Iran Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian signed a bilateral trade agreement with Pakistan during a visit to Islamabad last week, and will visit Japan on Sunday, in another sign that Iran sees its opportunities in the east and south, not west. 

Iran has tripled its oil exports to China the past three years, as Adam Lucente reports.